Minimize your transportation costs with gas flow and basis projections.
The North American Flow and Basis (NAFB) model incorporates supply, demand, and pipeline network to derive flow patterns and market price basis through 2030 for 57 gas pricing nodes and 156 flow paths.
Objective:
Minimize total transportation cost
Scope:
- 57 gas pricing nodes
- 156 flow paths
- Monthly optimization
- Daily stress testing (regional)
- Forecast to 2030
Constraints:
- Supply meets demand
- Pipeline capacity
MODEL INPUTS
Supply
- Basin-by-basin buildup of supply forecast from our North American Supply Model (NASM) by oil price scenarios
Demand
- LNG and Mexico exports
- Power
- Industry (including petchem)
- Residential/commercial
Pipelines
- Existing and new builds interstate and intrastate capacity
- Pipeline tariff
Storage
- Existing storage and expected expansions
MODEL OUTPUTS
Flow and path utilization
- Solve for gas flow between nodes and utilization on each path
Marginal and constrained path
- Identify the marginal path that determines node gas prices and areas with capacity constrains
Basis differential
- Forecast basis differential based on flow patterns and regional pricing mechanisms
GET THE OUTLOOK
North American Gas Outlook to 2030
Combining our deep insights with data from several proprietary forecasting models, this outlook explores the key drivers impacting North American gas markets.
