Offshore Drilling Outlook to 2030

To help navigate and understand the current cycle in the offshore rig market, our Offshore Drilling Outlook provides a reference case for the evolving offshore jackup and floating rig (i.e., semisub and drillship) markets through 2030—delivering a view on market conditions and timing for market recovery.


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KEY FINDINGS

"In response to limited demand for services and depressed day rates, rig owners have used innovative levers beyond the standard operational cost cutting, but it is becoming more difficult to reduce operating costs beyond the ~45% already achieved."

1. Activity outlook

Activity appears to have reached or neared the bottom, with most of the rig overhang from prior to 2015 having been removed and only 8-9% of the rigs active in 2015 still “at risk” of rolling off uncontracted before 2018.

2. Drilling services demand

Several events have occurred in the market that suggest increased demand for drilling services going forward: 6% expected growth in operator capex from 2016 to 2018, FID on 2 deepwater projects in the first 2 months of 2017, and deregulation in Brazil and Mexico.

3. Key player positioning

Players are positioned differently – worse-off players will continue focusing on maximizing liquidity, whereas better positioned players are preparing to capture upside.

4. Floating rig demand

Floating rig demand is expected to reach the bottom of the current cycle in 2017 at 139 rigs, before growing at a long-term growth rate of 6% p.a. through to 2030. Utilization will recover to 2014 levels by 2022, with long-term floater supply growth of ~25% by 2030.

5. Jackup demand

For jackups, demand is expected to bottom out in 2017 at 295 rigs, before eventually growing at 2% per year through 2030. Utilization will recover to above 80% by 2021, and extensive retirements of older, lower-spec rigs are expected to drive a 7% decline in the increasingly high-spec jackup fleet to 489 rigs by 2030.




WHAT'S IN THE REPORT

Market overview

  • Impact of oil price decline on offshore production and resulting impact on the offshore drilling market
  • Actions taken by drilling contractors to mitigate the downturn
  • Utilization for floaters and jackups
  • Operating costs and margins
  • Number of active contracts for floaters and jackups
  • Total offshore capex

Floating rig outlook

  • Demand outlook for floating rigs with regional granularity through 2030
  • Fleet supply dynamics including outlook on fleet utilization
  • Fleet size and day rates
  • Current fleet deployment, owner compositions, and contract status
  • Total production in deepwater outlook
  • Short-term demand outlook
  • Key growth regions
  • Long-term supply-demand balance and market utilization

Jackup outlook

  • Demand outlook for jackups with regional granularity through 2030
  • Fleet supply dynamics including outlook on fleet utilization
  • Fleet size and day rate
  • Current fleet deployment, owner compositions, and contract status
  • Total production in shallow water outlook
  • Short-term demand outlook
  • Key growth regions
  • Long-term supply-demand balance and market utilization





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The Offshore Drilling Outlook presents a characterization of the current market environment and outlook for offshore jackup and floater rig markets through 2030, including fleet supply, demand, and utilization through the current market cycle.
The standard report includes a PDF copy as well as Excel output tables.

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