Offshore Drilling Outlook to 2030

To help navigate and understand the current cycle in the offshore rig market, our Offshore Drilling Outlook provides a reference case for the evolving offshore jackup and floating rig (i.e., semisub and drillship) markets through 2030—delivering a view on market conditions and timing for market recovery.


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"Offshore rig counts have continued to slide over recent months, despite the recovery in oil prices. Offshore rig market conditions are expected to remain challenging in the near term as shale output surges. But in the longer term, growth prospects will be more positive."


Hover over the chart to explore historical offshore rig demand and oil price.








KEY FINDINGS

1. Oil market outlook

By 2030, we project that E&P companies will need to add 36MMb/d of new crude production from unsanctioned projects to meet demand. Both shale and offshore oil output are expected to play an important role in closing this gap; with offshore responsible for about half of the new crude production.

2. Jackup demand

Jackup demand is expected to have bottomed out in 2017, before eventually growing at a mild rate through 2030 as non-NOC operators shift to more commercially attractive deepwater fields as the breakeven cost of marginalized shallow water fields increases.

3. Floater demand

We estimate that floating rig activity reached the bottom of the current cycle in 2017/18. We now expect sequential market growth for floaters from 2019 to 2022, and stronger growth beyond that to 2030.




WHAT'S IN THE REPORT

Market overview

  • Impact of oil price decline on offshore production and resulting impact on the offshore drilling market
  • Actions taken by drilling contractors to mitigate the downturn
  • Utilization for floaters and jackups
  • Operating costs and margins
  • Number of active contracts for floaters and jackups
  • Total offshore capex

Floating rig outlook

  • Demand outlook for floating rigs with regional granularity through 2030
  • Fleet supply dynamics including outlook on fleet utilization
  • Fleet size and day rates
  • Current fleet deployment, owner compositions, and contract status
  • Total production in deepwater outlook
  • Short-term demand outlook
  • Key growth regions
  • Long-term supply-demand balance and market utilization

Jackup outlook

  • Demand outlook for jackups with regional granularity through 2030
  • Fleet supply dynamics including outlook on fleet utilization
  • Fleet size and day rate
  • Current fleet deployment, owner compositions, and contract status
  • Total production in shallow water outlook
  • Short-term demand outlook
  • Key growth regions
  • Long-term supply-demand balance and market utilization





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The Offshore Drilling Outlook presents a characterization of the current market environment and outlook for offshore jackup and floater rig markets through 2030, including fleet supply, demand, and utilization through the current market cycle.
The standard report includes a PDF copy as well as Excel output tables.

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