"Demand is expected to grow at a moderate rate of ~2% p.a. through 2030, eventually reaching 119 Bcfd due to increasing exports, shifts in power sources and rising chemicals production.”
Combining our deep insights with data from several proprietary forecasting models, this outlook explores the key drivers impacting North American gas markets. New pipelines will allow Appalachian gas to supply new markets, fundamentally altering North American gas flows. Associated gas from the Permian will add low cost gas to the supply mix but requires additional pipeline investment. International factors like LNG and exports to Mexico will increasingly affect the US market. Weak global LNG prices and high cash costs will keep utilization at US LNG plants low for the next few years. Meanwhile, coal retirements and falling renewable costs are changing the role of gas in the power mix.
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"The Marcellus and Utica areas will continue to dominate shale production in North America."
Click through the legend to explore the drivers of North American shale gas supply growth by shale play through 2030.
1. Exports account for ~67% of US and Canadian demand growth by 2030
From 2016 to 2030, LNG and exports to Mexico grow by over 19 bcfd and account for ~67% of US and Canadian gas demand growth
2. US LNG liquefaction facilities utilization will average less than 60% from 2018-2023
Weak global LNG market will result in ~4.5 bcfd excess LNG export capacity in 2021
3. From 2025 to 2030, an additional ~6 bcfd LNG export capacity comes online
Brownfield conversions at Lake Charles and Golden Pass come online first followed by more speculative projects
4. Shale will continue to dominate production
~40% of all gas produced in North America will come from the Appalachian basin by 2030
5. Low cost associated gas will push the gas cost curve to the right
~50% of total gas supply growth in North America by 2030 is associated, with the Permian and SCOOP/STACK plays especially productive
WHAT'S IN THE REPORT
November 2017 | Thanks to the growing number of LNG suppliers and advances in small-scale technology, opportunities are arising for oil-to-gas conversions, which could lead to the development of a regional gas market in the Caribbean.