“Are recent improvements in crude prices sustainable or will the market swing into imbalance once again?”


Combining data and insights from a suite of energy market forecasting models, our outlook focuses on the impact of key drivers on the pace and timing of oil price recovery, the evolution of regional oil production (including shale oil), and the economic implications of long-term market trends for oil supply and demand.

The Global Oil Supply and Demand Outlook can be purchased in 3 different formats: medium-term outlook (next 3 years), long-term outlook (to 2030), or a combination of both. Purchase includes a comprehensive PDF report as well as Excel data tables.


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“As US shale oil displays strong growth and global project breakevens improve, will recovering oil demand be sufficient to absorb supply additions?”


Click through the legend to explore the impact of various project types and lifecycles on oil supply growth through 2030.






KEY FINDINGS

1. Mid-term oil recovery scenario

In our “Lower for Longer” base case scenario, oil prices do not recover until late 2020 due to increasing supply from US shale that breaks even at $55/bbl, as well as releasing of inventories

2. Long-term oil demand growth outlook

Long-term oil demand growth is expected to slow down to 0.7% p.a. as strong growth from chemicals is somewhat offset by peaking road transportation demand due to energy efficiency and EV penetration

3. Long-term oil supply growth outlook

On the supply side, the industry needs to replace 4-5MMb/d production every year due to declining production in mature basins. Growth is expected to come primarily from shale oil until 2025-26 and offshore thereafter as US shale oil starts to decline through to 2030

4. OPEC

We assume OPEC will maintain its market share at around 43-45% in the long run with Saudi Arabia increasing production gradually towards 12MMb/d. We expect the organization will manage output to balance the market when needed

5. Global cost curve

The marginal cost of supply in the long-term is expected to be in the $65-75/bbl range in the long term, thanks to sustained cost compression, operational efficiency improvements, and slow demand growth




WHAT'S IN THE REPORT

Historical recap (2014-2017 YTD)

Analysis of the evolution of oil prices and oil supply-demand balance since the peak in 2014, including the drivers that led to a market oversupply and its later rebalancing

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Medium-term market outlook (through 2021)

Presentation of demand and supply outlooks for the next 3 years, including key oil pricing scenarios and analysis

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Long-term market outlook (through 2030)

Presentation of demand and supply outlooks through 2030, including structural shifts in oil market dynamics for the oil and gas industry

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global oil outlook to 2030 spotlight image



RELATED INSIGHT


5 key signposts that will set the cost of the marginal barrel of oil in the long term

March 2018 | We expect 5 key signposts will set the cost of the marginal barrel of oil in the long term: global oil demand, non-OPEC declines, North American shale oil, OPEC production, and new project costs.



You can purchase the full report by visiting our store.



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