"As global oil supply proves resilient to the harsh economic conditions, will oil prices finally recover over the next three years or remain permanently depressed?”
Combining data and insights from a suite of energy market forecasting models, our outlook focuses on the impact of key drivers on the pace and timing of oil price recovery, the evolution of regional oil production (including shale oil), and the economic implications of long-term market trends for oil supply and demand.
Our summary report is an abridged version of the outlook that covers all the major topics and introduces key charts. Purchase of the full Global Oil Supply and Demand Outlook to 2030 includes a comprehensive PDF report as well as 50+ Excel data tables to complement the tables illustrated in the report.
"By 2030, E&P companies will need to add 35MMb/d of new crude production from unsanctioned projects to meet demand."
Click through the legend to explore the impact of various project types and lifecycles on oil supply growth through 2030.
1. OPEC behavior
OPEC reached full level of compliance with the output cut deal, however production growth in deal-exempt countries and NGLs is offsetting large part of the cuts, delaying market balancing
2. Mid-term oil recovery scenario
We expect the market to structurally tighten around 2020. LTO production should return to strong growth by that time, yet accelerated legacy production declines from the lack of upstream investment will likely help eclipse the oversupply
3. Long-term oil demand growth outlook
Long-term oil demand growth slows down, due to slower global GDP growth of 2.4-2.7% p.a. and decreasing oil intensity driven by energy efficiency and EV substitution
4. Long-term oil supply growth outlook
On the supply side, recent improvements in project cost savings are expected to be partially maintained, and translate to 15-20% reductions in project breakeven prices by 2030
5. Industry margins
The marginal cost of supply in the long-term is expected to be in the $60-70/bbl range, thanks to slow demand growth and cost improvements on the supply side
WHAT'S IN THE REPORT
Global oil markets projected to tighten by 2020-21, driven by decline in projects reaching final investment decision
October 2017 | While the global oil price downturn caused a rapid decline in the number of projects achieving FIDs, signs of recovery are starting to show. This could lead to the oil market tightening in the next 3-5 years, with crude prices temporarily reaching USD70/bbl in the medium term.