Global Oil Supply & Demand Outlook to 2030
The Global Oil Supply & Demand Outlook is our bi-annual view on the evolution of global and regional oil supply and demand balances to 2030. Combining data and insights from a suite of energy market forecasting models, our outlook focuses on the impact of key drivers on the pace and timing of oil price recovery, the evolution of regional oil production (including LTO), and the economic implications of long-term market trends for oil supply and demand.
Our summary report is an abridged version of the outlook that covers all the major topics and introduces key charts. We are pleased to offer this complimentary summary via the download link below.
"With markets steadily rebalancing, could we see a return to normalcy by 2019?"
1. Short-term oil recovery scenario
We expect LTO production to return to strong growth, while accelerated legacy declines due to the lack of upstream investment will help reduce the oversupply.
2. OPEC behavior
OPEC’s level of adherence to the output cut deal has been very high, ~90% in January, and this will drive the market rebalancing process in the coming months.
3. Long-term oil demand growth outlook
Future oil demand growth slows down due to slower global GDP growth of 2.5-2.7% p.a. through 2030 and decreasing oil intensity driven by energy efficiency and substitution.
4. Industry margins
The marginal cost of supply in the long-term is expected to be in the $65-75/bbl range, thanks to slow demand growth and cost improvements on the supply side.
5. Long-term oil supply
The industry needs to replace 2-3Mbd production every year due to declining production in mature basins.
6. Long-term oil supply growth outlook
On the supply side, recent improvements in project costs are expected to be partially maintained and translate to 15-20% reductions in project breakeven price by 2030.
WHAT'S IN THE REPORT
Analysis of the evolution of oil prices and oil supply-demand balance since the peak in 2014, including the drivers that led to a market oversupply and its later rebalancing
Near- and long-term outlooks
Presentation of demand and supply outlooks in the near- and long-term, including key oil pricing scenarios and analysis of market forces driving a potential oil supply-demand rebalancing
Presentation of the strategic implications, including structural shifts in oil market dynamics, for the oil and gas industry
KEY CHARTS & TABLES
Long-term market outlook to 2030
- Brent oil spot price versus futures curve
- Global liquids cost curve
- Long-term supply and demand outlooks
- Global GDP growth and oil intensity
- Production projections
- Historical and projected
Short-term market outlook
- Global oil market balance
- Short-term supply and demand outlooks
- Price scenarios
- GDP growth
- Decline rates in mature basins
- Production projections
- OPEC production
- Global commercial crude and liquids inventories
- USD exchange rate
- Strategic petroleum reserve additions