Global Gas & LNG Outlook to 2030

The Global Gas and LNG Outlook is Energy Insights' bi-annual view on the evolution of global and regional gas and LNG markets to 2030. Combining data and insights from a suite of advanced energy market forecasting analytics, our outlook focuses on the evolution of gas demand and infrastructure, project-by-project breakeven costs, and trade flows to 2030.

Our analysis offers a unique perspective on recent and upcoming developments in regional gas markets—including the impact of a low price environment combined with the rapid growth in supply and a slower underlying demand growth—as well as the future of the gas market post-2020.

Our summary report is an abridged version of the outlook that covers all the major topics and introduces key charts. We are pleased to offer this complimentary summary via the download link below.


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KEY FINDINGS


"LNG demand growth is expected to be driven by emerging markets, with growth split between China and India on one side and new market entrants on the other."

1. Gas demand will be driven by consumption growth in Asia

China, India, and Southeast Asia are expected to see strongest demand growth on back of continued strong economic growth, increased concerns about air quality, and growth in industrial sector.

2. Major resource holding regions will still account for most of supply growth

Large resource bases in the US, Russia, and Middle East are expected to see the strongest growth, increasing market share and growing international trade. Unconventional gas, mainly from the US, is expected to contribute 75% of total supply growth by 2030.

3. Gas traded internationally as a share of total gas consumption will be growing

The share of LNG in global trade will increase from 10% to 14% and piped flows also expected to take increased share of total gas consumption from 15% to 16%.

4. Gas liquefaction technology costs will be deflating.

Liquefaction capex is expected to decrease 60-70% from the 2008-10 peak to below USD600/tonne, driving economics of new projects developed on the US Gulf Coast.

5. LNG market will be oversupplied through 2024

The LNG market is expected to see supply growing faster than demand through 2020. This could lead to a market oversupply through 2024 unless LNG demand growth can accelerate beyond recent historical rates.

6. Global gas prices have converged and will be driven by LNG and oil prices

The oil price collapse helped regional prices converge, and future pricing will be driven by marginal cost in the short term and US LNG full-cycle cost longer term.




WHAT'S IN THE REPORT

Market overview

What is Energy Insights’ short-, medium- and long-term view on the key trends in the global gas market and what are the main uncertainties that drive this reference case? What new LNG export projects do we expect to come online up to 2030?

Regional deep-dives

How do we perceive future competitiveness of currently uncontracted North American LNG capacity? What are conditions that Turkey needs to fulfill in order to become a leading local gas trade hub? Where from and how could China source additional gas imports to satisfy its rapidly growing demand?




KEY CHARTS & TABLES

Demand outlook to 2030

  • Primary energy demand
  • Global gas demand by region
  • Global gas demand by sector

Supply outlook to 2030

  • Percentage of regions’ gas reserves produced for domestic use or export
  • Global gas supply by region
  • Global gas supply by type

Delivery mechanisms - piped gas vs. LNG

  • Share of consumption, imported pipeline gas and imported LNG in gas consumption mix
  • Historical additions to LNG vs. piped gas flows in gas consumption mix
  • Domestic consumptions, piped and LNG gas imports projections
  • Historical and forecasted LNG liquefaction developments
  • LNG demand by country for recent and likely market entrants
  • Global LNG supply and demand balance to 2030
  • New LNG supply by country

Pricing

  • Price forming mechanisms by region
  • Global gas prices 2010-2016
  • Spot crude, LNG and TTF prices

Key uncertainties

  • China gas demand, low case
  • India gas demand, low case
  • Europe demand and potential supply sources in 2030
  • Breakeven prices for new supply (EPS, pre-FEED and FEED projects)
  • Development of LCOE for utility scale PV 2010-2025
  • Relationship between power and gas prices

Regional supply & demand outlook to 2030

  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • South Asia
  • ASEAN
  • Japan, Korea, Taiwan
  • Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America


"LNG demand will continue to grow by 4.6% p.a. in years 2017-2030, adding around 211bcm in LNG demand between 2020-2030."





You can purchase the full report by visiting our store.

The Global Gas and LNG Outlook to 2030 includes a comprehensive analysis of future market developments driving the gas and LNG sector with supply and demand analysis and regional deep-dives of the European, Asian, North- and South American, Middle Eastern, and African gas markets.

Our summary report is an abridged version of the outlook that covers all the major topics and introduces key charts. We are pleased to offer this complimentary summary via the download link below.


GET THE SUMMARY BUY THE REPORT