Global Downstream Outlook to 2030

The Global Downstream Oil Outlook is Energy Insights' bi-annual view on how global and regional refining markets will evolve to the year 2030. Combining data and insights from the European, North American, and Asian downstream markets, our outlook focuses on the evolution of refining utilization, crude and products balances, and trade flows to 2030.

Our summary report is an abridged version of the outlook that covers all the major topics and introduces key charts. We are pleased to offer this complimentary summary via the download link below.


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KEY FINDINGS


"Global refining overcapacity will put pressure on margins across the major hub markets until 2020 when MARPOL provides some relief."

1. A more complex global refining system

Driven by a desire to achieve higher refinery margins, refiners will build more conversion capacity and push up the complexity of the global refining system.


2. Overbuild in distillation capacity

Global distillation capacity will rise faster than demand at 1.1% p.a. until 2020, though slowing down to 0.6-0.7% p.a. afterwards as the global refining market adjusts to an overbuild in global capacity.


3. Over 1.4 Mb/d of additional capacity could be required post 2020

Additional refining investments will be needed to meet growing light product shortages in Asia after 2020 assuming product demand grows by 0.7% p.a. from 2020 to 2030.

4. Shift in center of global crude oil trade

The center of crude oil trade will shift from the Atlantic to the Pacific basin, as North American and European imports decline and West African and Middle Eastern crude exporters send more supply to Asia.


5. Concentration in light product flows

Light product flows will become increasingly concentrated around three main export hubs—North America, Europe, and Russia—while light product demand shifts eastward.


6. A tight global heavy fuel market

The global heavy fuel oil market will remain tight, with residual material pricing firmly at conversion values through 2020. In 2021, light/heavy product differentials could widen under a high demand scenario if the MARPOL regulations are implemented.




WHAT'S IN THE REPORT

Market overview

What are the expected short-, medium-, and long-term refining capacity additions? What is the outlook for refinery utilization in the major refining hubs?

A perspective on supply & demand

How are crude and petroleum product flows expected to evolve and change once refinery projects are completed in Asia and the Middle East? If the US crude export ban is lifted, how much will be exported and where will the volumes likely go? Will the lifting of the export ban significantly change US refineries’ crude slate? How will growing light crude supply impact US refining operations in the future?

Regional deep-dives

What is the outlook for European refineries in the short to medium term? What is the expectation for Chinese refined products demand to 2030? Who will be the major crude suppliers to China and the Asia Pacific?




KEY CHARTS & TABLES

Recent market trends

  • NW Europe, Asia, USGC refining margins
  • diesel / gasoline differential
  • light / heavy differential
  • residual fuel oil / Dubai crude differential
  • Asia / Europe crude differential

Fundamentals outlook

  • global refined product demand
  • transport fuels demand by type
  • global liquids feedstock supply to refining
  • global crude production by region
  • global crude production by API gravity
  • global refining capacity outlook - distillation
  • global refining capacity outlook - conversion

Price mechanism outlook

  • NW Europe, Singapore, and USGC hub refining utlization
  • net distillate imports by region
  • net gasoline imports by region
  • gasoline and middle distillate demand
  • global resid supply & demand
  • effect of MARPOL on bunker fuel
  • Middle East crude exports
  • PADD3 crude exports of light-sweet crude

Margins and spreads

  • NW Europe FCC margin
  • Singapore RCC margin
  • USGC FCC / Alky margin
  • product light / heavy differentials


"Global implementation of IMO's MARPOL Annex VI regulations will raise resid supply to levels sufficient to push the resid balance into oversupply after 2021, assuming industry does not invest in a further wave of new conversion units."





You can purchase the full report by visiting our store.

The Global Downstream Outlook to 2030 includes a comprehensive market forecast and industry implications for global and regional refining utilization, crude and product balances, and trade flows to 2030.

Our summary report is an abridged version of the outlook that covers all the major topics and introduces key charts. We are pleased to offer this complimentary summary via the download link below.


GET THE SUMMARY BUY THE REPORT