“Asian light product demand will grow by an average 2% per year from 2017 to 2025 versus 3.4% per year since 2010.”

Our Asian Refining Outlook provides a reference case for the Asian refining market, including recent trends and the outlook for fundamentals and margins. The market assessment employs our price-setting mechanism methodology to assess recent pricing behavior and translate our outlook for market fundamentals into a view on Asian pricing and margins. Purchase includes a comprehensive PDF report as well as Excel data tables.


“By 2020, Asian cracking margins could increase by $5-7/bbl over 2017 levels on higher distillate demand in bunker resulting from MARPOL.”

Click through the legend to explore the impact of various project types and lifecycles on oil supply growth through 2030.


1. Asian light product demand will grow by an average 550 kb/d from 2017 to 2025. Growth in most markets in the region is expected to be slower than seen in the last five years

2. The strong growth in product demand in Southeast Asia will come mostly from gasoil demand growth in 2020. As the largest regional bunker market, Singapore is expected to see a buildup of marine gasoil demand for shipping following IMO 2020.

3. Global refining capacity growth will outpace demand growth in all years except 2020, bringing down refining utilization by a few points by 2019

4. In 2020, IMO’s MARPOL regulation pushes up marine gasoil demand in bunker and drives up overall global refining utilization

5. Crude from the US and Latin America in particular will see their share increase the most in Asia


Recent market trends

  • Gross refining margins
  • Refining margins – variable cash
  • Refining throughput
  • Refining capacity additions
  • Refining capacity rationalization
  • Product demand
  • Product differentials
  • Product demand growth
  • Imports by origin

Market outlook

  • Product demand
  • Refining capacity
  • Evolution of global bunker fuel sulfur limit
  • Refining utilization
  • Refining margins
  • Product supply and demand
  • Product differentials

You can purchase the full report by visiting our store.

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