Capture untapped opportunity in the downstream sector

Expand your view of downstream market dynamics with regional refining market perspectives and scenario-based outlooks on crude and product prices, margins, balances, and flows. Our integrated offerings uncover the key drivers and trends shaping downstream oil markets, and our in-depth global and regional outlooks and custom analysis provide you with the insights you need to make informed, forward-looking decisions in the downstream sector.

Understand major market changes in global downstream oil

The global downstream oil market is undergoing major changes brought on by the fall in oil price, evolving regulations on sulfur in marine bunker fuel, and the continued expansion of Asian economies. We provide context around these developments and offer insights on how such changes will impact global and regional refining utilization, crude and product balances, and trade flows.

Test drive your own assumptions

We utilize multiple market scenarios in addition to our reference case, incorporating sensitivities for key market conditions and the resulting impact on flows, balances, prices, and margins. In addition to our standard scenarios, flexible planning capabilities enable us to run alternatives, tailored to your own view on the market.



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Global Downstream Outlook to 2030


The Global Downstream Oil Outlook is our bi-annual view on how global and regional refining markets will evolve to the year 2030. Combining data and insights from the European, North American, and Asian downstream markets, our outlook focuses on the evolution of refining utilization, crude and products balances, and trade flows to 2030.



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DOWNSTREAM MODELS

Global Downstream Model

Tool simulating downstream market fundamentals such as crude and product flows, refined product supply and demand, and refining utilizations


OilDesk

Tool providing scenario-based crude and product price outlooks based on refining economics


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CASE EXAMPLES

$4/bbl

of premium at risk

Partnered with a NOC to develop their crude marketing strategy, identifying $4/bbl of premium at risk.

+

30-100M

USD

Supported a large oil company in developing a refining business unit strategy in preparation for a possible carve-out.

+

100M

USD

Identified over USD100 million at risk reviewing a crude supply contract for a large onshore producer.

+



DOWNSTREAM INSIGHTS

NOVEMBER 2017

MARPOL implications on refining and shipping markets


In 2020, global sulfur limits for bunker fuel will be lowered from the current 3.5% to 0.5%, affecting over 3 million b/d of residual fuel oil (resid). We expect the shipping industry to react by switching to a combination of marine gasoil and low-sulfur resid bunker. This will at least initially result in higher refining margins and wider light-heavy differentials, making an array of sulfur removal investments very attractive.