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Table of contents
  • 1

    Market overview

    Review of changes in market fundamentals (product balances, refinery utilization, and crude and product trade flows) and their resulting impact on which mechanisms have been setting price and margin conditions.

    • How have prices and margins changed monthly over the last several years?
    • What price-setting mechanism behavior explains this?
    • What change in fundamentals drove this behavior?
  • 2

    Market outlook

    Presentation of McKinsey’s proprietary outlook for market fundamentals (crude and other feedstock supply, product demand, refinery capacity changes) and the impact they will have on key price-setting mechanisms and resulting prices and margins.

    • How will market fundamentals evolve?
    • How will this affect price-setting mechanisms?
    • What prices and margins will result?
  • 3

    Sensitivity cases

    Six market scenarios in addition to our reference case, incorporating sensitivities for all key price-setting mechanisms and the resulting impact on prices and margins.

    • Given uncertainty in fundamentals, what are potential alternative outcomes for price-setting mechanisms?
    • What will be the resulting prices and margins?
    • What would you have to believe for this outcome to occur?