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Key Findings
  • 1

    Top finding

    Short-term oil
    recovery scenario

    We expect LTO production to return to strong growth, while accelerated legacy declines due to the lack of upstream investment will help reduce the oversupply.

  • 2

    Industry margins

    The marginal cost of supply in the long-term is expected to be in the $65-75/bbl range, thanks to slow demand growth and cost improvements on the supply side.

    3

    OPEC behavior

    OPEC’s level of adherence to the output cut deal has been very high, ~90% in January, and this will drive the market rebalancing process in the coming months.

  • 4

    Long-term oil demand growth outlook

    Future oil demand growth slows down due to slower global GDP growth of 2.5-2.7% p.a. through 2030 and decreasing oil intensity driven by energy efficiency and substitution.

    5

    Long-term oil supply growth outlook

    On the supply side, recent improvements in project costs are expected to be partially maintained and translate to 15-20% reductions in project breakeven price by 2030.

Key charts and tables
  • 1

    Long-term market outlook to 2030

    • Brent oil spot price versus futures curve
    • Global liquids cost curve
    • Long-term supply and demand outlooks
    • Global GDP growth and oil intensity
    • Production projections
    • Historical and projected capex
    2

    Short-term market outlook

    • Global oil market balance
    • Short-term supply and demand outlooks
    • Price scenarios
    • GDP growth
    • Decline rates in mature basins
    • Production projections
    • OPEC production
    • Global commercial crude and liquids inventories
    • USD exchange rate
    • Strategic petroleum reserve additions
Table of contents
  • 1

    Recent developments

    Analysis of the evolution of oil prices and oil supply-demand balance since the peak in 2014, including the drivers that led to a market oversupply and its later rebalancing

  • 2

    Near- and long-term outlooks

    Presentation of demand and supply outlooks in the near- and long-term, including key oil pricing scenarios and analysis of market forces driving a potential oil supply-demand rebalancing

  • 3

    Industry implications

    Presentation of the strategic implications, including structural shifts in oil market dynamics, for the oil and gas industry