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Key Findings
  • 1

    Top finding

    Gas demand will be driven by consumption growth in Asia

    China, India, and Southeast Asia are expected to see strongest demand growth on back of continued strong economic growth, increased concerns about air quality, and growth in industrial sector.

  • 2

    Major resource holding regions will still account for most of supply growth

    Large resource bases in the US, Russia, and Middle East are expected to see the strongest growth, increasing market share and growing international trade. Unconventional gas, mainly from the US, is expected to contribute 75% of total supply growth by 2030.

    3

    Gas traded internationally as a share of total gas consumption will be growing

    The share of LNG in global trade will increase from 10% to 14% and piped flows also expected to take increased share of total gas consumption from 15% to 16%.

  • 4

    Gas liquefaction technology costs will be deflating

    Liquefaction capex is expected to decrease 60-70% from the 2008-10 peak to below USD600/tonne, driving economics of new projects developed on the US Gulf Coast.

    5

    LNG market will be oversupplied through 2024

    The LNG market is expected to see supply growing faster than demand through 2020. This could lead to a market oversupply through 2024 unless LNG demand growth can accelerate beyond recent historical rates.

Key charts and tables
  • 1

    Demand outlook to 2030

    • Primary energy demand
    • Global gas demand by region
    • Global gas demand by sector
    2

    Supply outlook to 2030

    • Percentage of regions’ gas reserves produced for domestic use or export
    • Global gas supply by region
    • Global gas supply by type
  • 3

    Delivery mechanisms - piped gas vs. LNG

    • Share of consumption, imported pipeline gas and imported LNG in gas consumption mix
    • Historical additions to LNG vs. piped gas flows in gas consumption mix
    • Domestic consumptions, piped and LNG gas imports projections
    • Historical and forecasted LNG liquefaction developments
    • LNG demand by country for recent and likely market entrants
    • Global LNG supply and demand balance to 2030
    • New LNG supply by country
    4

    Key uncertainties

    • China gas demand, low case
    • India gas demand, low case
    • Europe demand and potential supply sources in 2030
    • Breakeven prices for new supply (EPS, pre-FEED and FEED projects)
    • Development of LCOE for utility scale PV 2010-2025
    • Relationship between power and gas prices
  • 5

    Pricing

    • Price forming mechanisms by region
    • Global gas prices 2010-2016
    • Spot crude, LNG and TTF prices
    6

    Regional supply & demand outlook to 2030

    • North America
    • Europe
    • China
    • South Asia
    • ASEAN
    • Japan, Korea, Taiwan
    • Middle East
    • Africa
    • Latin America
Table of contents
  • 1

    Market overview

    What is our short-, medium- and long-term view on the key trends in the global gas market and what are the main uncertainties that drive this reference case? What new LNG export projects do we expect to come online up to 2030?

  • 2

    Regional deep-dives

    How do we perceive future competitiveness of currently uncontracted North American LNG capacity? What are conditions that Turkey needs to fulfill in order to become a leading local gas trade hub? Where from and how could China source additional gas imports to satisfy its rapidly growing demand?