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Key Findings
  • 1

    Top finding

    A more complex
    global refining
    system

    Driven by a desire to achieve higher refinery margins, refiners will build more conversion capacity and push up the complexity of the global refining system.

  • 2

    Overbuild in distillation capacity

    Global distillation capacity will rise faster than demand at 1.1% p.a. until 2020, though slowing down to 0.6-0.7% p.a. afterwards as the global refining market adjusts to an overbuild in global capacity.

    3

    Over 1.4 Mb/d of additional capacity could be required post 2020

    Additional refining investments will be needed to meet growing light product shortages in Asia after 2020 assuming product demand grows by 0.7% p.a. from 2020 to 2030.

  • 4

    Shift in center of global crude oil trade

    The center of crude oil trade will shift from the Atlantic to the Pacific basin, as North American and European imports decline and West African and Middle Eastern crude exporters send more supply to Asia.

    5

    Concentration in light product flows

    Light product flows will become increasingly concentrated around three main export hubs—North America, Europe, and Russia—while light product demand shifts eastward.

Key charts and tables
  • 1

    Recent market trends

    • NW Europe, Asia, USGC refining margins
    • Diesel / gasoline differential
    • Light / heavy differential
    • Residual fuel oil / Dubai crude differential
    • Asia / Europe crude differential
    2

    Fundamentals outlook

    • Global refined product demand
    • Transport fuels demand by type
    • Global liquids feedstock supply to refining
    • Global crude production by region
    • Global crude production by API gravity
    • Global refining capacity outlook - distillation
    • global refining capacity outlook - conversion
  • 3

    Price mechanism outlook

    • NW Europe, Singapore, and USGC hub refining utlization
    • Net distillate imports by region
    • net gasoline imports by region
    • gasoline and middle distillate demand
    • global resid supply & demand
    • effect of MARPOL on bunker fuel
    • Middle East crude exports
    • PADD3 crude exports of light-sweet crude
    4

    Margins and spread

    • NW Europe FCC margin
    • Singapore RCC margin
    • USGC FCC / Alky margin
    • product light / heavy differentials
Table of contents
  • 1

    Market
    overview

    Driven by a desire to achieve higher refinery margins, refiners will build more conversion capacity and push up the complexity of the global refining system.

  • 2

    A perspective
    on supply and
    demand

    What is the impact of a low price environment combined with the rapid growth in supply and a slower underlying demand growth?

    How does the future of the gas market look like post-2020?

  • 3

    Regional
    deep-dives

    How do we perceive future competitiveness of currently uncontracted North American LNG capacity? What are conditions that Turkey needs to fulfill in order to become a leading local gas trade hub? Where from and how could China source additional gas imports to satisfy its rapidly growing demand?