Global Downstream Outlook to 2030

The Global Downstream Outlook is our bi-annual view on how global and regional refining markets will evolve to the year 2030. Combining data and insights from the European, North American, and Asian downstream markets, our outlook focuses on the evolution of refining utilization, crude and products balances, and trade flows to 2030.



Market overview

What are the expected short-, medium-, and long-term refining capacity additions? What is the outlook for refinery utilization in the major refining hubs?

A perspective on supply & demand

How are crude and petroleum product flows expected to evolve and change once refinery projects are completed in Asia and the Middle East? If the US crude export ban is lifted, how much will be exported and where will the volumes likely go? Will the lifting of the export ban significantly change US refineries’ crude slate? How will growing light crude supply impact US refining operations in the future?

Regional deep-dives

What is the outlook for European refineries in the short to medium term? What is the expectation for Chinese refined products demand to 2030? Who will be the major crude suppliers to China and the Asia Pacific?


Recent market trends

  • NW Europe, Asia, USGC refining margins
  • diesel / gasoline differential
  • light / heavy differential
  • residual fuel oil / Dubai crude differential
  • Asia / Europe crude differential

Fundamentals outlook

  • global refined product demand
  • transport fuels demand by type
  • global liquids feedstock supply to refining
  • global crude production by region
  • global crude production by API gravity
  • global refining capacity outlook - distillation
  • global refining capacity outlook - conversion

Price mechanism outlook

  • NW Europe, Singapore, and USGC hub refining utlization
  • net distillate imports by region
  • net gasoline imports by region
  • gasoline and middle distillate demand
  • global resid supply & demand
  • effect of MARPOL on bunker fuel
  • Middle East crude exports
  • PADD3 crude exports of light-sweet crude

Margins and spreads

  • NW Europe FCC margin
  • Singapore RCC margin
  • USGC FCC / Alky margin
  • product light / heavy differentials

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